Despite the conclusion of the U.S. election season, Polymarket continues to hold a strong and dedicated user base, showing resilience and staying power in the face of uncertainty.
A Strong Post-Election Showing for Polymarket
After the intense election betting activity, many predicted a decline in Polymarket’s user engagement. However, data now reveals that Polymarket’s loyal user base is not only enduring but thriving. According to recent data, Polymarket’s trading volume and open interest, key indicators of market activity, have shown significant recovery since the U.S. election.
By November 12, open interest, which refers to the total value of all active positions, had dropped to around $93.91 million, but it quickly rebounded to $115.25 million by the end of the month. This indicates that while trading volume decreased post-election, it stabilized and even grew as the month progressed, reaffirming Polymarket’s position as a reliable platform for prediction market enthusiasts.
Active Users and Betting Patterns
Polymarket’s active user base also remains strong, with the number of active wallets consistently around the mid-30,000s. This suggests that, although there was a drop in user activity following the election, the platform continues to attract substantial engagement from a broad range of traders. Notably, 60% of the bets placed on Polymarket are under $100, showing that the platform is not overly reliant on a few large traders (whales).
The platform’s ability to maintain this level of participation indicates that users are engaging with markets beyond election predictions, with non-political contracts gaining popularity.
Legal and Regulatory Challenges Ahead
While Polymarket’s performance remains strong, it is not without its challenges. The platform still faces legal hurdles that may require attention, particularly regarding regulatory issues in the cryptocurrency and prediction markets space. However, some industry experts are optimistic that these challenges could be resolved with a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, especially under future leadership in Washington.
High-Stakes Predictions and Surprising Outcomes
In addition to its strong user base, Polymarket has also seen its share of high-stakes predictions. One notable event was the recent pardon of Hunter Biden, a move that took many by surprise. Prior to the announcement, Polymarket traders had given the pardon a low probability, with contracts trading around 28-30 cents. After the White House confirmed the pardon, the contracts skyrocketed to 100%, paying out at $1 each.
This surprising outcome illustrates the uncertainty inherent in prediction markets and how quickly positions can shift once new information becomes available.
Apologies and Controversies
In an unexpected turn of events, former NFL player Antonio Brown issued an apology for a post that insulted Shayne Coplan, the founder of Polymarket, after he was encouraged to do so by Kalshi, a competing platform. This incident highlights the sometimes intense rivalries and public disputes that can arise within the prediction market space, though it also shows how swiftly public figures can respond to conflicts when they arise.
